Income Builder
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Income Builder Model Portfolio

Monthly Portfolio Review: January 2025

Publication date: February 3, 2025

Current portfolio holdings

FOR SUBSCRIBER USE ONLY. DO NOT FORWARD OR SHARE.

Executive summary

  • The Income Builder portfolio generated a return of 0.4% in January, versus a return of 2.8% for the S&P 500 Index.

  • A relatively benign mid-month inflation report helped bring long-term interest rates down and boost stock prices.

  • Questions around the long-term AI investment case had a big impact on stock market performance, however.

  • Enthusiasm towards the AI theme, following Trump’s Stargate announcement, transitioned into a mini-panic a few days later as investors tried to make sense of DeepSeek, a Chinese start-up that claimed to have built an AI model with minimal resources.

  • While the portfolio’s alternative asset managers generated good returns in January, performance was negatively affected by stocks connected to the AI theme.

  • We share our latest thinking on DeepSeek and why we continue to have confidence in the long-term AI opportunity.

  • Shares of data center operator Digital Realty (DLR) declined 8% in January. We view this as an overreaction and a compelling buying opportunity.    

Performance review

The Income Builder portfolio generated a total return of 0.4% in January, versus a 2.8% return for the S&P 500 Index. For the six months ending January 31, 2025, the portfolio generated a total return of 6.0%, versus 10.1% for the S&P 500 Index.


The top performing stocks in the portfolio in December were Carlyle Group (CG), which returned 11%; WEC Energy (WEC), which returned 6%; and Blackstone (BX), which returned 3%.


The worst performing stocks this month were Digital Realty Trust (DLR), which returned -8%, and Sempra (SRE), which returned -5%.

Rate-driven recovery


As we noted in last month’s review, optimism in the wake of Trump’s victory gave way to concerns over rising interest rates. December was a difficult month for most stocks as long-term interest rates crept up.


Concerns around interest rates persisted through the first two weeks of the new year. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which was approximately 4.2% at the start of December, reached a high of approximately 4.8% in mid-January.


The peak in bond yields more or less coincided with the S&P 500 Index, as well as the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, reaching their lowest levels since Election Day.

Total Return (last 3 months) -

S&P 500 and S&P 500 Equal Weighted

Relief came in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on January 15, 2025. Yields fell and stocks rallied as core inflation readings came in lighter than expected.  


By the end of January, yields on the 10-year Treasury were approaching 4.5%.


While investors fretted over rising interest rates in December and the first half of January, once long-term yields started to decline after the mid-month CPI report, market sentiment shifted back towards the themes of growth, innovation and optimism which fueled the November rally.


A busy month for AI


Shortly after Trump’s inauguration, he announced a blockbuster deal in the tech space. The $500 billion Stargate announcement, while light on specifics, signaled a strong commitment by the administration to the Artificial Intelligence (AI) build-out.


Most tech stocks, along with stocks in other sectors that are linked to the AI theme, rallied in the wake of this news. The renewed enthusiasm around AI would only last a few days, however.


Stargate was announced on Tuesday, January 21. By Sunday evening, January 26, a small Chinese AI start-up named DeepSeek became the main topic on every investor’s mind.


DeepSeek offers an AI model similar to OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Like ChatGPT, it can be downloaded as an app onto your phone (given data privacy concerns, we would not necessarily recommend this).


DeepSeek quickly shot to the top of the charts on the Apple app store. Meanwhile, media attention was directed towards a December 2024 technical paper which claimed that DeepSeek was created for a fraction of the cost of other AI models.


As we previously noted, the timing around the DeepSeek hysteria was curious, almost as if the press attention was intended to pour cold water on Trump’s bold initiative to cement U.S. technological dominance in AI.


On Monday, January 27, AI-related stocks tanked, including NVIDIA (NVDA). Just after the Stargate announcement, NVDA was trading very close to its all-time highest levels. NVDA ultimately traded down approximately 16% last week.


Thanks to the DeepSeek news flow, the market pivoted from conviction that an enormous investment boom was underway to create a vast infrastructure of AI data centers to something of a panic that all of this capital spending is pointless.


A broader market rally


As DeepSeek took over the news cycle, many AI-linked stocks were put under pressure. But with more optimism on the inflation outlook and interest rates coming down, we saw a rotation of capital into other areas of the market.


The Technology sector, dragged down by NVDA and other AI plays, ended up being the worst performing sector in the S&P 500 in January, although the damage was relatively mild (down 1%).

Source: FactSet

Investors sold AI-related stocks and moved money into other growth areas that were not necessarily reliant on AI capital spending. Health care in particular performed well and delivered a 7% total return in January.


Cyclical sectors, like Industrials and Materials, which are especially sensitive to the interest rate trajectory, also performed well in January, reversing much of their dismal performance in December.


Positive momentum on the interest rate front was reinforced by the Federal Reserve meeting on January 29. The Fed’s statement, along with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference performance, painted a relatively benign picture of the economic outlook.


The Fed kept interest rates flat at the meeting. Powell described an economy that appeared healthy from a growth and employment perspective as inflation rates continue to moderate.


Our latest thinking on DeepSeek


The investment world spent much of the last week of January conducting a fire drill on DeepSeek and trying to understand the full implications. Over the course of the week, many important variables came to light.


We continue to have an optimistic long-term view of AI as an investment theme for stock market investors. There are four aspects to the DeepSeek story that should ease investor concerns over the potential negative impact.  


(1) DeepSeek likely required much more money than initially assumed.


Initial reports on DeepSeek, based upon the December technical report, led investors to believe the Chinese had accomplished for a mere $6 million what their counterparts in the U.S. needed hundreds of millions if not billions to achieve.


As industry experts focused on the details of the DeepSeek business model, a consensus has emerged that a proper accounting of all the resources that went into DeepSeek would lead to a significantly higher figure than $6 million.


DeepSeek may have been created for meaningfully less than other AI models, suggesting the Chinese have perhaps discovered valuable process innovations or are leveraging lower human capital costs. But the gap between DeepSeek and U.S. peers is likely not as extreme as initially feared.


(2) DeepSeek copied ChatGPT.


It has also come to light that DeepSeek leaned heavily on the intellectual property of ChatGPT as it trained itself. As White House Crypto/AI Czar David Sacks explained in a recent interview, DeepSeek may have had millions of interactions with the ChatGPT model (which were possibly in violation of OpenAI’s intellectual property rights).


Sacks noted that DeepSeek was so thoroughly influenced by ChatGPT that users of the DeepSeek program observed that it even self-identified as ChatGPT at times.


(3) The bulk of the multi-billion dollar AI build-out is not for training but inference.


DeepSeek was allegedly able to develop an AI training model relatively inexpensively, but the next chapter of AI relates more to inference.


Training refers to the process of the computer network learning how to answer questions and create graphical content. Inference refers to the process of actually answering these questions and delivering this content.

Major misunderstanding about AI infrastructure investments: Much of those billions are going into infrastructure for *inference*, not training. Running AI assistant services for billions of people requires a lot of compute. Once you put video understanding, reasoning, large-scale memory, and other capabilities in AI systems, inference costs are going to increase. - Yann LeCun, Chief AI Scientist at Meta (1/28/2025)

The planned investment of hundreds of billions of dollars into AI data centers is all about mass market delivery of AI services, which remains very resource-intensive.

(4) Cheaper AI means more AI.


There is another possible misinterpretation of the DeepSeek story. Investors sold AI stocks based on the assumption that getting greater productivity out of hardware like NVIDIA Graphic Processing Units (GPUs) is a negative signal for AI capital spending.


We are in the early stages of the AI revolution, but if it follows the patterns of other technology roll-outs, like the Internet and mobile phones, the costs associated with delivering this technology should continuously decline. And declining costs should incentivize greater usage, creating even more demand.  


Investors should therefore continue to expect technological advancements that generate more artificial intelligence at lower cost. With no apparent ceiling on the AI services that business and consumers will ultimately want to have, declining costs may actually spur more investment in AI, rather than less.


Diversification still makes sense


Artificial intelligence remains a powerful force within the economy, but the DeepSeek shock demonstrates that even growth-oriented investors should not be singularly focused on any particular trend. Investors who had exposure to other growth areas were rewarded in January.


Further underscoring the need for diversification, as we write, market focus is shifting towards Trump’s recently announced tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada.


The implementation of these tariffs led to some pressure on markets at the end of the day on Friday. We plan to provide further color on this subject as trading resumes this week.

Portfolio highlights

The top performing stocks within the portfolio in January were Carlyle Group, which delivered an 11% total return; WEC Energy (WEC), which delivered a 6% total return; and Blackstone (BX), which delivered a 3% total return.


The worst performing stocks were Digital Realty (DLR), which returned -8%, and Sempra (SRE), which returned -5%.

Shares of alternative asset managers CG and BX performed well in the context of the broader market recovery.


With Trump in office, the private equity space is heating up in anticipation of more merger and acquisition activity. Alternative managers generate profits through fees and successful realizations of their investments.


On the fee front, both CG and BX are showing good progress in terms of attracting funds from investors. In terms of realizations, performance within the funds they manage is trending well.


From a dividend perspective, asset managers have minimal capital spending requirements and tend to generate strong cash flows. Operating expenses are primarily related to paying the investment professionals and administrative staff that they employ.


As a result, we anticipate strong operating performance to translate into healthy dividend growth in the years ahead for both CG and BX.


WEC is a well-managed electric utility that operates in Wisconsin under a regulatory regime that is widely considered among the most favorable in the U.S.


One of the reasons we prefer WEC to other options in the utility space is that the Wisconsin region has successfully attracted technology and manufacturing companies—in part because of WEC’s ability to meet their energy needs.


The I-94 corridor connecting Chicago and Milwaukee may not get a great deal of national attention, but it has emerged as an important commercial hub. The region has much to offer, including a highly educated talent pool, relatively lower land and residential housing costs, and a stable climate.


Majors tech players like Microsoft and Amazon have been developing data centers and other facilities in the area, creating growth opportunities for WEC, which powers their operations.


WEC shares came under pressure in December as long-term interest rates rose. The recovery in January reflects the improvement in the interest rate environment.


DLR shares sold off sharply after the DeepSake story began to circulate. We suspect REIT investors took a “sell first, ask questions later” approach given DLR’s close linkage to the AI build-out theme as a leading data center operator.


We view the recent weakness in DLR as a buying opportunity. As noted in the above discussion on DeepSeek, we continue to have conviction in the long-term AI data center build-out story. As a major owner and developer of data centers, DLR will continue to participate in that.


It is important to recognize that DLR’s business model is based on long-term contractual arrangements with investment grade tenants. This offers a high degree of predictability to its earnings in the years ahead.


There is a severe shortage of data center capacity in the industry now, which gives landlords like DLR pricing power and the ability to generate robust organic growth as leases reset from much lower levels that prevailed in years past.


Investors can continue to speculate about the long-term implications of DeepSeek, but the cash flow picture at DLR for many years head remains very much intact. DLR’s current valuation does not require aggressive assumptions about data center demand growth.


SRE is a Texas-based utility that has some exposure to natural gas infrastructure projects. The DeepSeek developments also led investors to sell SRE as part of a broader wave of negative momentum directed at energy providers to AI data centers.


Similar to DLR, we would view the current wave of negative sentiment that has affected SRE as an opportunity.


Upward pressure on interest rates and DeepSeek-related questions around the long-term AI investment case have weighed on the Income Builder portfolio over the past two months.


Despite these recent setbacks, the portfolio has delivered an approximately 20% total return since inception—in line with the S&P 500. We continue to have high confidence in the diversified collection of income-generative stocks we have assembled in this portfolio.    

Key metrics

Valuation detail

Performance detail

Company snapshots

Blackstone (BX)

Crown Castle (CCI)

Digital Realty Trust (DLR)

Diamondback Energy (FANG)

Texas Instruments (TXN)

VICI Properties (VICI)

Williams (WMB)

Carlyle Group (CG)

Kinder Morgan (KMI)

Mid-America Apartment (MAA)

Permian Resources (PR)

Sempra (SRE)

WEC Energy Group (WEC)

The 76research Income Builder Model Portfolio is intended for income-oriented investors and managed to generate an overall yield that is materially higher than broad equity indices. The portfolio primarily includes stocks with above average dividend yields from a cross section of industries. While investments are screened for their income and income growth characteristics, specific holdings are chosen based on valuation and general business quality, growth and risk considerations.

FOR SUBSCRIBER USE ONLY. DO NOT FORWARD OR SHARE.