Income Builder
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Income Builder Model Portfolio

Monthly Portfolio Review: March 2025

Publication date: April 3, 2025

Current portfolio holdings

FOR SUBSCRIBER USE ONLY. DO NOT FORWARD OR SHARE.

Executive summary

  • The Income Builder portfolio returned -2.3%% in March, versus a -5.6% total return for the S&P 500 Index.

  • Enthusiasm for the Trump policy agenda has turned into high anxiety over tariffs, which now continues in the aftermath of the Liberation Day announcement.

  • Within the portfolio, defensive business models outperformed in March, while more cyclically sensitive holdings underperformed.

  • As markets react negatively to Trump’s latest tariff proposals, we encourage investors to keep a long-term focus and think opportunistically.

Performance review

The Income Builder portfolio returned -2.3% in March, versus a -5.6% total return for the S&P 500 Index. On a year to date basis, the portfolio has generated a total return of -1.5%, versus -4.3% for the S&P 500 Index.


The top performing positions in the portfolio in March were Crown Castle (CCI), which returned 12%; Kinder Morgan (KMI), which returned 5%; and Williams (WMB), which returned 4%.


The worst performing stocks this month were Blackstone (BX), which returned -13% and Carlyle Group (CG), which returned -13%.

Tech valuations reset


After a promising start to the year, and on the heels of very strong returns in 2024 (with the S&P 500 gaining approximately 25%), March was a particularly difficult month for the stock market.


In March, we witnessed a continuation of a fairly intense sentiment shift that began towards the end of February.


As we write, this negative momentum is continuing, in the wake of yesterday afternoon’s tariff announcements. Additional commentary on these breaking developments will be provided to subscribers in the days ahead.


Optimism towards the Trump economic agenda, based on de-regulation, fiscal sanity, innovation and re-industrialization, has turned into anxiety over tariffs along with potentially disruptive federal spending cuts.


While the tech sector is not necessarily the area one would expect tariffs to impact the most, tech, especially mega-cap tech, was the part of the market that was hardest hit in March.


While the S&P 500 was down 5.6%, the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index was down 8.1%. The largest tech stocks, as reflected by the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS), which tracks the performance of the Mag Seven tech stocks on an equal-weighted basis, was down 10.4%.

S&P 500, NASDAQ, S&P 500 Value, Mag Seven

Total Return (March 2025)

It is worth noting that the S&P 500 Value Index was only down 3.0% in March. On a year to date basis through the end of March, returns on value stocks were slightly positive.


Value stocks largely consist of companies outside the tech sector that are in many cases quite sensitive to the economic growth outlook. The relative strength of value stocks suggests the volatility we saw in March was not totally driven by genuine fears of tariff-related economic collapse.


What we witnessed in March was a retrenchment of tech sector valuations, which had become quite extended and were in a vulnerable position.


Looking at the performance of the NASDAQ and Mag Seven stocks over a longer time frame puts in perspective the degree to which tech names had completely outperformed other areas of the market.

S&P 500, NASDAQ, S&P 500 Value, Mag Seven

Total Return (Last 12 Months)

Despite the sharp sell-off in recent weeks, Mag Seven stocks are still outperforming over the past year.


Meanwhile, the performance of NASDAQ stocks (which are a good proxy for tech and growth) is as of the end of March more or less in line with the S&P 500 (which is more balanced between growth and value) on a one-year basis.


Tariffs have been the catalyst for the negative market momentum in the tech sector, but the stage was set by dramatic tech outperformance that began in earnest in September 2024 and extended all the way to mid-February 2025.


Rotation to international


Just as investors in recent weeks have moved money out of highly valued tech shares into other industries, we also saw strong performance in international stocks.


While the S&P 500 was down 4.3% in the first quarter of 2025, developed market international stocks (as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index) were up 7.0%.

S&P 500, NASDAQ, International Stocks

Total Return (Last 3 Years)

International stocks had badly lagged U.S. stocks for most of the past year, until mid-February, thanks in no small part to the sharp rally in tech shares.


But if we look at relative performance on a three-year basis, the performance gap between the U.S. and international stocks has now largely disappeared.


Put differently, as a result of this recent tech-led sell-off, U.S. stocks have “caught down” to international stocks—at least on a three-year basis.


Inflation concerns


In addition to tariffs, concerns about persistent inflation have also hurt investor sentiment. Last week’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) reading, which came in slightly above expectations, contributed to selling pressure.


As we discussed over the weekend on our livestream, while sticky inflation is a strong media narrative, especially as it relates to tariffs, actual bond market inflation expectations tell a different story.

INFLATION and the MEDIA: Perception vs. Reality

Despite a lot of speculation about tariffs being highly inflationary, market-based inflation expectations, as inferred from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, remain low.

Long-term Inflation Expectations

(Last 12 Months)

The 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate represents the average inflation rate (over the five year period beginning in five years) that is being priced in by investors in U.S. Treasuries.


This forward inflation rate is now approximately 2.1%, quite close to the Federal Reserve’s target level of 2%.


The key takeaway is that the bond market is not signaling any reason to panic on the inflation front.


Mag Seven drove sector performance


Similar to February, the Technology sector led the way down in March, while other industry sectors that have large exposure to technology-related companies also fared poorly.


Consumer Discretionary stocks, for example, suffered because Tesla (TSLA) and Amazon (AMZN) are the two largest names in that sector. TSLA and AMZN shares declined 12% and 10% respectively in March.

Source: FactSet

Similarly, the Communications Services sector has Magnificent Seven constituents Meta (META) and Alphabet (GOOGL) as its two largest holdings. These stocks represent close to 40% of the total market capitalization of the sector.


META and GOOGL shares declined 14% and 9% in March.


More defensive sectors, such as Utilities, Consumer Staples and Health Care, performed relatively well. Their earnings are perceived as less vulnerable to an economic slowdown, while their valuations benefit from declining long-term interest rates.


Liberation Day fall-out


Yesterday evening, President Trump rolled out his reciprocal tariff plans.


There had been some optimism in the market this week that the tariff policy would be gentler than previously feared. However, the proposed levels are generally seen as higher than expected.


As markets come under pressure, we will keep subscribers up to speed on our latest thinking through the usual channels.

Portfolio highlights

The top performing positions within the portfolio in March were Crown Castle (CCI), which delivered a 12% total return; Kinder Morgan, which delivered a 5% total return; and Williams (WMB), which delivered a 4% total return.


The worst performing stocks were Blackstone (BX), which returned -13%, and Carlyle Group (CG), which returned -13%.

Shares of communications tower operator CCI outperformed in March for two main reasons.


First, the company announced in the middle of the month that it has entered into an agreement to divest its “small cell” fiber business on attractive terms.


Many investors, including some activists, were pushing for the sale of this business, which was viewed as a distraction from the company’s core business of providing communication tower access to the mobile phone industry.


Proceeds of the sale will be used to buy back shares and reduce debt. In connection with the transaction, the dividend was trimmed, but CCI shares still offer a close to 5% dividend yield.


Second, with a business model based on long-term contracts with high quality tenants (the largest telecommunications providers in the U.S.), CCI stands out as a defensive stock with bond-like characteristics. CCI shares perform well in risk-off environments and periods of declining long-term interest rates.


KMI and WMB shares performed relatively well in recent weeks with some assistance from firmer energy prices, which benefited the Energy sector generally.


As the two leading natural gas infrastructure players in the U.S., KMI and WMB continue to be viewed as significant beneficiaries of the Trump policy agenda. They benefit from not only a solid demand outlook for their existing networks of natural gas pipelines but expansion opportunities as well.


The almost insatiable electrical power requirements of the many large-scale AI data centers under construction throughout the U.S. represent a key demand driver for natural gas.


To the extent tariffs stimulate an expansion of energy-intensive domestic industrial activity, this should only bolster demand for natural gas that is already supported by the AI buildout.


Whereas a stock like CCI will tend to perform well in risk-off scenarios, alternative asset managers BX and CG tend to underperform as somewhat leveraged plays on the broader market.


We continue to view both BX and CG as excellent long-term compounders. We would expect both names to outperform in the context of a general market recovery.


We published a note in the 76report earlier this month (High Yield with Bitcoin Upside) on Strategy Convertible Preferred Stock (STRK). Offering an approximately 9% dividend yield, we believe this security may be particularly interesting to Income Builder subscribers.


As the first and by far largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, Strategy is a unique company, and STRK is a unique security.


For investors who are deeply skeptical of Bitcoin’s long-term viability, STRK is likely to be of little interest.


However, for investors who have confidence in Bitcoin as an asset, STRK is intriguing in our view because of how immensely overcollateralized Strategy is in terms of its Bitcoin holdings relative to its dividend and interest obligations.


We also find it interesting and comforting that STRK trades with surprisingly low correlation to MSTR common stock and the price of Bitcoin.


Investors seem to understand that even material fluctuations in MSTR and Bitcoin do not really impact the company’s ability to live up to its dividend commitments to STRK holders.


As we now find ourselves in a period of heightened volatility, we encourage subscribers to stay focused on the long-term fundamentals of strong businesses rather than market headlines.


Periods of risk aversion, like the current one, often produce excellent entry points for long-term investors in high quality stocks.

Key metrics

Valuation detail

Performance detail

Company snapshots

Blackstone (BX)

Digital Realty Trust (DLR)

Diamondback Energy (FANG)

Texas Instruments (TXN)

VICI Properties (VICI)

Williams (WMB)

Crown Castle (CCI)

Carlyle Group (CG)

Kinder Morgan (KMI)

Mid-America Apartment (MAA)

Prologis (PLD)

Permian Resources (PR)

Sempra (SRE)

WEC Energy Group (WEC)

The 76research Income Builder Model Portfolio is intended for income-oriented investors and managed to generate an overall yield that is materially higher than broad equity indices. The portfolio primarily includes stocks with above average dividend yields from a cross section of industries. While investments are screened for their income and income growth characteristics, specific holdings are chosen based on valuation and general business quality, growth and risk considerations.

FOR SUBSCRIBER USE ONLY. DO NOT FORWARD OR SHARE.