76report

973d62d5b1

February 12, 2025
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76report

February 12, 2025

Vance Outlines Bold AI Push

When Trump’s young Vice President JD Vance arrived in Paris yesterday to speak at an AI summit, he wasn’t necessarily presenting to the most receptive audience.


And Vance, while polite and respectful, was by no means there to tell them what they wanted to hear. Taking a page from his boss, he was there to tell them what they needed to hear.


Vance’s message was straightforward. The time has come to drop the obsession with regulation. The free world needs to win in AI.


The time has come for Europe to join forces with and support the American tech sector—and stop undermining it. The stakes are too high now.  

I'm not here this morning to talk about AI safety, which was the title of the conference a couple of years ago. I'm here to talk about AI opportunity. When conferences like this convene to discuss a cutting-edge technology, often times, I think our response is to be too self-conscious, too risk-averse. But never have I encountered a breakthrough in tech that so clearly calls us to do precisely the opposite. Now, our Administration, the Trump Administration, believes that AI will have countless revolutionary applications, and economic innovation, job creation, national security, health, free expression, and beyond.  - Vice President JD Vance (2/11/2025)

Yesterday’s speech in Paris was an important signal to America’s counterparts around the world. For the Trump administration, AI is not only central to its economic agenda—but its national security vision as well.


The speech was significant for investors, too.


In the last week of January, AI-related stocks sold off as news stories circulated about a Chinese AI start-up called DeepSeek. Markets were taken aback by DeepSeek’s apparent ability to create an AI model at relatively minimal cost.


Over the past two weeks, many of the initial technological misunderstandings around DeepSeek have been clarified. But there are still lingering concerns about the outlook for AI investments.


Vance’s speech in Paris should leave investors with little doubt as to where the Trump administration stands when it comes to supporting the AI growth opportunity.


We have also seen announcements in recent days by several mega-cap tech companies affirming and in some cases substantially increasing their AI investment plans.


We continue to have confidence in the AI build out theme as well as our Model Portfolio holdings that are most closely tied to AI growth (which we discuss further below).  

Since the dawn of the internet, European leaders have been giving U.S. tech companies a hard time.


From paralyzing EU regulations to a perpetual flow of antitrust investigations and lawsuits, European governments have mobilized against America’s tech juggernauts for decades.


Their stated intentions always relate to protecting consumers… but beneath the surface, there is an embarrassing reality for Europe that is probably influencing their behavior.


The sad fact is that Europeans have shown a remarkable inability to create a truly vibrant tech sector of their own. Across Europe, only a small handful of tech businesses have achieved the sort of scale now routinely seen in the U.S. and even Asia.


While the intellectual talent seems to be there, many blame a lack of venture capital along with a business culture that is exceedingly hostile to risk-taking and entrepreneurship.


European businesspeople will often be among the first to tell you this. In the United States, a business failure is a learning experience. In Europe, it’s a mark of shame.


Europe’s relative weakness when it comes to producing homegrown technological innovation has had real consequences. Compared with the United States, their stock markets have been left in the dust.


Over the past 10 years, an investment in the S&P 500 has generated a total return of nearly 200%, thanks largely to tech outperformance. An investment in a comparable large-cap European stock index has returned just under 75%.


If European politicians and business leaders tend to be a bit jealous of American tech success, it is understandable. But this resentment often seems to pale in comparison to their hostility to Donald Trump.


The brash American President directly opposes almost every policy position favored by European elites, from Ukraine to climate change.


The now global movement Trump has inspired has even become a threat to their continued claim to power. Conservative populist parties have made major progress across the continent.

The message to Europe


Vance was perhaps deliberately provocative in his call for a confident approach towards AI development, which runs counter to the highly cautionary tone often taken by policymakers.


While acknowledging risks that need to be managed, he urged world leaders to set aside “hand-wringing about safety” and work towards the promotion of AI technology to improve the lives of all people.


A key point he made was that, all too often, concerns about safety are just a smokescreen for incumbent players who simply want to fortify their entrenched positions through protective regulation.


Vance spoke in defense of “the grad students producing some of the most groundbreaking applications of artificial intelligence.”


The global gold standard in AI


Vance did not mention DeepSeek or even China explicitly. He spoke instead of “authoritarian regimes.”


But the competitive threat that China poses clearly informed Vance’s remarks, which came just two short weeks after DeepSeek roiled the tech sector.


The Trump administration is committed to ensuring that American AI technology remains the “gold standard worldwide and… the partner of choice for others, foreign countries, and certainly businesses, as they expand their own use of AI.”


Vance noted that the U.S. possesses all components of the AI stack, from advanced semiconductor design to frontier algorithms.


He highlighted the importance of raw computing power and making sure the most powerful AI systems are built in the U.S. with American-designed and manufactured chips.


An “open regulatory environment”


Vance made the case that the reason the U.S. has been so successful in AI is that it has permitted competition and experimentation to flourish.

We need international regulatory regimes that foster the creation of AI technology rather than strangles it. And we need our European friends in particular to look to this new frontier with optimism rather than trepidation…. The Trump Administration is troubled by reports that some foreign governments are considering tightening the screws on US tech companies with international footprints. Now, America cannot and will not accept that. - JD Vance (2/11/2025)

Vance also warned America’s European allies of the crucial need to support AI development with effective energy policy, given the immense power requirements of AI supercomputers.


He criticized green energy policies that are “chasing reliable power out of their nations and off their grids.”


No woke AI


Vance assured the audience that the Trump administration is committed to keeping AI “free from ideological bias” and making sure it will “never restrict our citizens' right to free speech.”


Noting how other regimes have weaponized AI as an engine of propaganda, Vance said the administration would be proactive in preventing access to American AI technology by governments that will abuse it for purposes of surveillance and censorship.


Clearly referring to China, Vance also warned other countries of “partnering” in AI with states that have a track record of using advanced technology for nefarious ends.


Prioritizing American workers


The Vice President directly challenged the widely held belief that AI will destroy jobs. He committed to policies that will help workers flourish in an AI-driven economy.

We refuse to view AI as a purely disruptive technology that will inevitably automate away our labor force. We believe, and we will fight for policies that ensure that AI is going to make our workers more productive. And we expect that they will reap the rewards with higher wages, better benefits, and safer and more prosperous communities. - JD Vance (2/11/2025)

Vance said American workers will always have a “seat at the table” in AI policy discussions. He also called upon schools to integrate AI within curriculums so students learn how to interact with AI productively as it starts to play a larger role in our everyday lives.

Two weeks post-DeepSeek


Many of the AI stocks brought down by DeepSeek have begun to recover but continue to trade at levels materially below where they were beforehand.


In the meantime, investors in the AI theme have been encouraged by recent capital spending forecasts coming out of the major tech platforms.


Four companies alone —Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN)—have committed to capital expenditures in 2025 that collectively exceed $300 billion. The bulk of this relates to direct or indirect AI investment.


We have several holdings across our Model Portfolios that we view as relatively direct AI plays. Among these, there are three in particular that we have previously discussed in the 76report.


Oracle (ORCL) and Eaton (ETN) are American Resilience portfolio holdings.


ORCL, we have learned recently, will be directly involved in Trump’s Stargate initiative. ETN remains a key supplier for the national AI data center build out.


Digital Realty (DLR) is a top holding within the Income Builder portfolio.


As one of the world’s premier owners and developers of data centers, DLR is similarly well-positioned, with a relatively more defensive business model, to capture continued spending on AI capacity.

Selected AI stocks

(total return year-to-date vs. S&P 500)

It has only been a few weeks since Trump’s inauguration, yet we have seen many clear examples of extremely robust policy support for AI development.


Even the inauguration itself—with front row seating provided to many of the leading tech CEOs (and of course their brides-to-be)—was a strong signal of the administration’s commitment to AI.


Since the inauguration, Trump has also met privately with NVDA founder and CEO Jensen Huang, whom he described as a “great gentleman.”


Vance did not mince words in Paris yesterday. His speech only reinforces our conviction that AI-related stocks will continue to benefit from the MAGA policy agenda.


We encourage subscribers interested in investing in the AI theme to take an opportunistic view of any ongoing volatility in these names.

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