76report

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January 2, 2025
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76report

January 2, 2025

ETFs to Start HODLING in 2025

The term HODL appears to have entered the English language just over eleven years ago. A potentially inebriated Bitcoiner, who went by the pseudonym GameKyuubi, misspelled the word “holding” in the subject line of a post on a popular chat board.

I AM HODLING… I type d that tyitle twice because I knew it was wrong the first time.  Still wrong.  w/e.  GF's out at a lesbian bar, BTC crashing WHY AM I HOLDING? I'LL TELL YOU WHY.  It's because I'm a bad trader and I KNOW I'M A BAD TRADER. - GameKyuubi (12/18/2013)

The term has since become a must-know crypto vocabulary word.


HODLING is a pretty straightforward strategy: just buy something and don’t sell it.


The logic of HODLING may be quite simple but the concept has merit, especially in relation to stocks.


As an asset class, stocks deserve very long-term, if not permanent, allocations.


Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) provide a wide range of options for investors seeking to establish a base of long-term exposure to stocks in a low cost and tax efficient manner.


Over time, social media transformed HODL into an acronym: Hold On for Dear Life.


This sentiment makes a lot of sense given that HODL originated in the banter of stressed out crypto speculators, but it does have broader relevance.


Whether you are trading hyper-volatile altcoins or just buying blue chips, there is always the issue of dealing with your emotions when prices fluctuate.


Resisting temptation


A sharp move down can spark the phenomenon described by behavioral economists as loss aversion and trigger the instinct to sell.


Similarly, a fast move up can lead to the impulse to lock in gains and take one’s chips off the table (sometimes referred to as the disposition effect).


HODLING represents an attitude of perseverance. It’s an almost blind commitment to a long-term plan.


In classical mythology, Ulysses famously had his crew tie him to the mast of his ship so he would not fall prey to the song of the sirens and steer towards their island.

Ulysses and the Sirens by John William Waterhouse (1891)

Like Ulysses, a HODLER is countering emotional impulses to act in a potentially self-destructive way by tapping into an equally strong emotional impulse not to act at all.


In this sense, HODLING could be seen as rationally irrational.


Committing to the long-term


There are many different approaches to the stock market. We are open-minded when it comes to different ideas and strategies.


There is abundant evidence, however, that simply owning a diversified portfolio of stocks works out quite well over long periods of time.


Over the last 20 years, for example, the S&P 500 has delivered a compounded annualized rate of return close to 13%.


There is also a lot of evidence that market-timing strategies are difficult if not impossible to execute successfully over long periods of time.


A lot of people out there predict market tops and bottoms… but very few consistently get them right.


Buying and continuously holding a diversified portfolio of stocks, either through funds or individual stocks, therefore makes a lot of sense.


Investors can benefit from the long-term upwards trajectory of stocks by establishing what can be thought of as an almost permanent foundation of stock market exposure.


Funds, especially passively managed index funds, are an excellent place to start when it comes to building the base of an investment portfolio.


Investment portfolios can and should evolve over time. But by establishing a solid base, and sticking with it through thick and thin, investors can essentially lock in the benefits of long-term stock ownership.


The ETF Solution


Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have become extraordinarily popular as an easy and low cost way to get exposure to the stock market as well as other asset classes like bonds and commodities.


One of the nice features of ETFs is tax efficiency.


Although active ETFs are increasingly getting rolled out, the vast majority of ETFs today follow passive strategies, which means they simply track the holdings of a reference index.


For example, the largest ETF is the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which has over $600 billion in assets. It tracks the S&P 500 Index.


Even though the composition of most ETFs is continuously changing to stay in line with the reference index, these changes generally do not create taxable capital gains realizations.


Through a process known as “in-kind” redemption and creation of shares, taxable gains are avoided when funds managed by ETFs grow, shrink or get rebalanced.


This mechanism is one of the main reasons that stock ETFs can be such an attractive vehicle for long-term saving.


ETFs are able to evolve with changes in the market, but this internal buying and selling activity generally does not create a taxable event. ETF investors are therefore able to defer capital gains realizations until they sell their shares.


Long-term HODLERS of ETFs can potentially defer gains for decades.


They may even pass the investment onto their heirs, who under current law may be able to avoid capital gains liability altogether through the concept of a stepped-up basis at inheritance.


Core versus Satellite


Fund management companies and financial advisors sometimes describe fund options using the “core/satellite” framework. It’s a useful metaphor.


Core funds should be highly diversified and offer broad-based exposure to the stock market. They warrant large allocations within a portfolio.


Satellite funds are narrower in focus but can be complementary to core funds.


Satellite funds should be used to take advantage of more specific opportunities or scenarios. They require smaller allocations.


Core Stock ETFs


An investor building a portfolio from scratch has many options when it comes to core funds. The goal here, again, is broad-based exposure.

Selected “Core” ETFs

Investors who want to focus on U.S. stocks should consider the many S&P 500-based ETFs that are available, which provide essentially the same function with comparable fees.


The S&P 500 is a large-cap index. To broaden out the opportunity set and include U.S. small-cap and mid-cap companies, an investor could also look at total stock market or U.S. All-Cap ETFs.


There are also many global and international ETFs to consider. This leads us to the somewhat controversial subject of how much, if any, international stock market exposure makes sense.


International stocks are split into Developed Markets (such as Western Europe and Japan) and Emerging Markets (such as China and Latin America). Both have strikingly underperformed U.S. stocks in recent years, especially the last five.

Total Return - S&P 500 vs. International - 10 years

Over the past 10 years, an investor in an S&P 500 ETF received a nearly 250% total return.


This compares with a return of just over 50% in a widely used international stock ETF like the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS), which includes both developed and emerging market stocks.


Some investors view the underperformance of international stocks as an opportunity. Historically, over very long periods of time, the performance of U.S. and international stocks tends to be similar and converge.


Additionally, we now see very substantial valuation disparities in U.S. versus international stocks.


Ten years ago, U.S. and international stocks traded at comparable Price/Earnings (P/E) multiples, in the mid to high teens.


Today, international stocks trade around 15 times earnings, whereas U.S. stocks, at least as reflected by the S&P 500, are well above 25 times.

P/E Multiple - S&P 500 vs. International - 10 years

While the lower valuations of international stocks may be tempting, they may also be cheap for a reason.


The U.S. dominates the world in innovation. America has its challenges, but many countries around the world are contending with much deeper structural problems, from demographics to unstable governments that are hostile to business.

Investors seeking to establish core equity exposure should be aware that U.S. stocks, by market capitalization, currently account for approximately two-thirds of the value of global stock markets.


Meanwhile, the vast majority of the market capitalization of the total U.S. stock market is associated with large-cap stocks.


Therefore, a good starting point for core ETF exposure is U.S. large-caps (as represented by S&P 500 ETFs). The S&P 500 alone covers some 60% of the total value of all global stocks.


To get more comprehensive exposure to global stock markets, an investor could use a global ETF like the Vanguard Total World (VT) or iShares MSCI ACWI (ACWI).


Alternatively, an investor could start with an S&P 500 ETF, like SPY, and, from there, use other ETFs to layer on U.S. small-caps and mid-caps as well as international stocks, as they see fit.


The equal-weight alternative


We are now seeing widespread concern across financial and social media when it comes to the elevated valuations of S&P 500 stocks.


It is crucial to recognize that the high overall valuation of the S&P 500 is largely the result of a small number of growth stocks (including the Magnificent 7) with enormous market capitalizations.


In other words, just like international stocks, U.S. stocks outside of these highly valued tech stocks are not trading at particularly rich valuations.


The impact of the mega-cap highfliers is apparent when one compares the standard market-capitalization weighted S&P 500 Index to the equal-weighted version.


Over long periods of time, such as the past 20 years, the two versions of the index tend to produce similar outcomes.

S&P 500 vs. S&P 500 Equal Weight - 20 years

Over the last two years, however, the market-cap weighted version of the index has outperformed substantially, thanks to the superior performance of mega-cap stocks.

S&P 500 vs. S&P 500 Equal Weight - 3 years

A big part of the story behind the relative success of the mega-caps has been earnings multiple expansion. The S&P 500 Index now trades at approximately 27 times trailing 12-month earnings, a historically high level.


By contrast, the average S&P 500 stock (as reflected in the equal-weight index) trades at a more historically in-line 20 times trailing 12-month earnings.

P/E of S&P 500 vs. S&P 500 Equal Weight - 10 years

Investors who are concerned about the high multiples now applied to the world’s most valuable growth stocks, yet still want broad-based U.S. equity exposure, should consider S&P 500 equal-weight ETFs.


The most widely used S&P 500 equal-weight ETF is the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), which has more than $70 billion of assets under management.


Equal-weight ETFs may also make sense for investors who already have large exposure to mega-cap growth stocks either through direct stock ownership or growth-oriented funds.


Satellite ETFs


After establishing a foundation of diversified core funds, investors can consider smaller allocations to a wide range of potential satellite ETFs.


Please stand by for Part II of this discussion as we investigate the opportunity set for more concentrated and focused ETFs and how they can be used to further diversify and strengthen investment portfolios.  

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